President or candidate? The advantages and risks taken by Donald Trump as he is already campaigning for re-election in 2020

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On the same day that he swore as US president, Donald Trump made time for another official act: he completed paperwork to be a candidate for re-election in 2020.

It was totally atypical. His five ancestors took that step when he had spent much of his first four-year term, not the first day. In his letter to the Federal Electoral Commission on January 20, Trump clarified that this was not a "formal announcement of his candidacy for the 2020 election."
But he also did not want to pass the time to compete in those elections or to carry out publicity and acts in the style of an electoral campaign in the first months of his government.

Trump distributed food to those affected by Hurricane Irma. "It's like a reality TV presidency: it's always on the campaign trail," says Joshua Sandman, a professor of political science at the University of New Haven, USA, an expert on presidential behavior, in dialogue with BBC World. And this can mean benefits as much as risks for Trump.
"What makes it better"

Trump has participated in several type-voting rallies since he took office, as well as at fundraising events. Between July and September alone, his campaign grossed $ 11.6 million, according to The Washington Post. But it also spent $ 5.6 million in the same quarter, including more than $ 1 million in legal costs, at a time when family and Trump employees are under investigation, the paper said.
On Monday, the president travels to South Carolina to attend a private fundraiser for Republican Governor Henry McMaster's campaign.

In August, during another campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona, he accused the media of dishonesty and touched one of the most controversial issues of his previous campaign, the wall on the Mexican border, stating that he would paralyze the government if Congress did not finance its construction (a threat that the White House later deactivated). Trump: "We will build the wall with Mexico even if we have to paralyze the government". The public on the premises chanted the acronym of his country in English, "U.S.A.!", And outside the police used tear gas to disperse a protest against Trump.

The presence of Donald Trump in Phoenix, Arizona, generated some protests that finally were dispersed by the police with tear gas. A few days before and in the midst of the racist violence that shook the city of Charlottesville, the president's campaign for re-election had issued a warning that his "enemies" were seeking to obstruct him. In addition, Trump participated in June in a first event like president to raise funds for the Republican Party. All this happens as several scandals shake his presidency, including an investigation to determine if Trump's campaign in 2016 conspired with Russia, and the president's approval ratings show record lows.

As US President, Trump has sought to keep its constituency mobilized. In this context, analysts believe Trump is aiming for re-election to try to dissuade others from getting in his way, either by competing in an internal party or by asking him to resign. "The way he has served as president has caused a lot of controversy, and he does not want to mitigate his chances of re-introducing himself, so he takes the initiative to try to keep someone from saying that he should not," Sandman says.

Trump "is obsessed" with erasing Obama's legacy in the United States. Are you achieving it? On the other hand, Trump seeks to keep mobilized its electoral base and recover the support of those who voted but now criticize, and to achieve it bet on the campaign mode.
"It's what makes it better," says James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, USA, an expert on elections and presidential politics. However, the recent failure to win the Alabama senator's candidacy of a Republican actively backed by Trump showed the limitations the president may have to convince

The internal struggle. Of course Trump is far from being the first president to govern with his eyes on the polls, something that even has a name in this country: the "permanent campaign."
While he was president of the USA between 1993 and 2001, Democrat Bill Clinton had a team of pollsters to measure what people thought and how to file government measures.

Clinton had a team of pollsters measuring what people thought. However, the way Trump is doing it can also play against him. "He has not been able to be more conciliatory and try to unify people, even his own party. That can be counterproductive and alienate people who need to have their side," warns Campbell. In fact, there have been reports of reserved movements by other Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence, who can be seen as signs of interest in being candidates in 2020, even if they deny it.

Vice President Mike Pence is seen as a potential Republican candidate for 2020 in case Trump gives up seeking re-election. Trump has failed to establish a fruitful relationship with members of his party in Congress and the frictions could grow if Republicans suffer a setback in the 2018 legislative elections. "The odds of a primary fight (between Republicans for the 2020 presidential) will increase as the current conflict between Trump and Congress continues," Chris Stirewalt, a political editor at the Fox news network, recently predicted. Why it is almost impossible for Donald Trump to be dismissed as president of the United States in an impeachment.

Failure to properly mark the boundary between the presidency and the campaign could even unleash legal challenges for Trump, as there are rules to prevent both activities from mingling.
Despite these risks, he is already the oldest American to take the presidency as he has yet to formally say whether he will seek his re-election in 2020 (at age 74), for now Trump seems much more interested in this than in returning to New York to run their business empire.